The Value of Stress Testing your Business

The act of “stress testing” banks, allows regulators to understand the effect on a bank’s economics during a severely adverse scenario, i.e. what is the likelihood that the institution will continue to transact business and survive a prolonged economic downturn.  Based on the results of the testing, regulators and bankers understand if the bank has the proper capitalization or alternatively what capital cushion is required to sustain itself.  Projecting an outcome based on a potential set of circumstances is a sound risk management approach.  Slightly modified, this approach can be and should be used to assess the impact of a stress on your business.  Does your business have the proper capital reserve cushion to adjust to a shock for a prolonged period?

For example, in the next three to twelve months, it is highly likely that the Federal Reserve will increase the federal funds rate.  This tool of monetary policy has an indirect impact on the prime rate, as the rates tend to move in lock-step.  As such, borrowers with variable rate loans will find their borrowing costs increase, i.e. a shock.  Since January 2009, the prime rate has been constant at 3.25%.  Yet 24 months prior, the prime rate was 5.0 percentage points higher, i.e. 8.25% (Source: Federal Reserve Board, Proprietary Bank Surveys).  At this point it is unclear if the Federal Reserve will begin a campaign to raise rates in 2015.  But once the campaign begins, how far will rates move up is not known.

To understand the potential impact of this shock, a business may perform the following testing –

Develop a proforma model based on the cash flow of your business.  Now increase your interest expense by 50% and then by 100%.  What is the impact on profitability as interest expenses increase?  Businesses that will be most impacted directly are entities that currently utilize a high amount of leverage and/or businesses that lay money out in advance of sales, for supplies and inventory.  While a business may have control over its leverage and purchases, it cannot control the economics of its customers and clients.   As rates increase, the economics of your customers may be disrupted which will have a trickle-down effect to its suppliers, i.e. you.  The natural outcome may be payment delays and an increase in your bad debt expense.

Based on your model, understand when issues will arise.  Quantify how much additional cash is required to ensure the proper cash reserve cushion is maintained.  Next proceed with one of three options –

Option #1 Least Impactful – Do nothing.  Understand the theoretical shortfall, but only make a change when you feel it is absolutely necessary.  I have seen many businesses use this wait and see approach.  It is not recommended.  Admittedly however, sometimes doing nothing works; but, other times it is disastrous.

Option #2 Most Impactful – Understand the cash reserve shortfall and discontinue any partner/owner distributions until the desired capitalization level is achieved.  This approach is very much in line with how the bank stress tests are performed.  If the bank passes the stress test, the Federal Reserve may allow it to make dividend distributions, share repurchases and major acquisitions/divestitures.

Option #3 Recommendation – Understand the cash reserve shortfall.  Investigate ways to increase the efficiency of your business.  Logical places to begin include –

  • Remove all non-value added costs – A non-value added cost is an expense that is incurred, but does not add to the value or perceived value of your product or service.  Simply stated, it is a cost your customers will not want to pay.
  • Ensure an appropriate pricing model – Pricing is a critical task that all businesses manage.  However, there are many different ways to approach the pricing requirement.
  • Review the demand for your product offerings – Periodically every business should review its product lines and services, to understand the profitability generated.  The natural result will be an emphasis on the most profitable activities; while de-emphasizing the less profitable or money loosing activities.
  • Remove discounts offered – Discounts have their place, but more often than not, they are used incorrectly.
  • Manage the vendor expense closely – Unchecked, vendor expenses can quickly become out of control. Are you spending more than you should be with your current vendors?
  • Review the profitability of customers – Obtaining a customer that becomes unprofitable is a common situation.  It only becomes an error of management if you do not periodically review these relationships, or ignore the results.

At this early stage, take advantage of the time you have to make adjustments to your business model to help absorb the shock and continue to thrive.  If you review the six areas listed, but are unable to find cost savings and efficiencies, you may need to fall back on either Option #1 or Option #2.

 

Author: Regis Quirin
Visit Regis's Website - Email Regis
Regis Quirin is a financial executive with 23 years of corporate experience, i.e. New York Stock Exchange, JP Morgan Chase, and GMAC ResCap; and 15 years working with small and medium-sized entities, i.e. joint ventures, start-up entities, established businesses. In 2014, Regis published "Redesign to Turnaround Underperforming Small and Medium-Sized Businesses" available via Amazon.

Pricing Strategy – Tips and Caveats for Discount Pricing

Discounts have their place, but more often than not, they are used incorrectly. Prior to offering a discount, controllers involved with establishing pricing strategy need to take the following steps:

Understand your business economics. If you have a 15 percent profit margin and for a period of time you are willing to give up a third of the margin to offer a discount, that may be a correct business decision. However, if you have a 15 percent margin, and for a period of time you give up an amount equal to 150 percent of the margin to offer a discount, that approach will hurt your business.

Establish the discount duration. Discounts should have a finite life. If they continue into perpetuity, you are just resetting price with the word “discount.” A discount is simply a marketing tool—a program that is planned, fielded, and completed. At a certain point, once the program ends, it is important to calculate the return on marketing investment received to understand whether the expense was worthwhile.

Understand the client’s needs. Some clients are driven by the word “discount.” In this situation, you should find the price that allows you to achieve your required returns, and increase the price of the product/service by the discount you will be giving. Billing and applying the discount will result in the attainment of your profit requirements. This approach is quite common in all businesses.

Different Types of Discounts

There are three types of discounts that work, as they benefit each party in the transaction. These are:

Discount to try your product or service. For a service, this includes discount pricing while the service provider gains the required knowledge to provide the client with the maximum service possible. During the early days of a relationship, a client should not be asked to pay full price, while you learn their business. For products, a discount provides an incentive for consumers to try your product vs. staying with their usual selection.

Discounts provided to clients based on their purchase volume, i.e., relationship pricing. The philosophy behind this type of discount is as follows: “If I can count on you to purchase 10 units of my product or service, I will charge you full price. But as you purchase more, I can take advantage of economies of scales, which I can pass down to you.”

Discounts provided for early payments. To incentivize early payment, it is common to offer a benefit (discount) to consumers.  Receipt of your money sooner rather than later is worth the customary 2 to 3% in discount.  But if your profit margins are already razor thin simply raise the price by the discount amount.  Billing and applying the discount will result in the attainment of your profit requirements.

Whichever type of discount is used, the greatest responsibility of the manufacturer/service provider is to communicate the discount terms and when they will expire. In fact, over-communicate these items. If you implement a discount to benefit the client but the discount goes away prior to when the customer was expecting it to go away, the relationship will be disrupted.  The discount expense will be a waste.

Avoid Three Common Discounting Errors

Controllers also need to be aware of the following three common errors when offering discount pricing:

Offering a discount to customers to entice them to pay their late bills. The message you relay here is, “Do not pay on time and I will reduce your price.”

Offering a discount to match the competitor’s price. This approach assumes your economics are the same as those of your competitor. That assumption is often very wrong. For example the competitor may be giving up a piece of their margin, while you may be giving up your entire margin.

Offering a discount on one product or set and losing money, expecting to make it up in other products/services. In some situations, one product is heavily discounted while other products are premium priced. The goal is to lose money on a few items in order to entice the client to also buy others, while making a higher margin on those other products/services. However, this approach will always backfire when you work with clients who understand the market price. They will understand where to focus their purchasing, i.e. only on the lower priced products.

The Bottom Line

A business will not thrive when it competes on price. Ensure that your value proposition is strong. Customers should seek out your company because the value you provide exceeds the cost of doing business with you.

When considering discounts as part of pricing strategy, controllers would be wise to take the following steps:

– Always calculate the projected cost of the discount to the company, prior to implementing.

– Consider a key performance indicator that measures discount usage and report on it.

– Ensure that discounted sales are booked separately from non-discounted sales, so discount usage is clearly quantifiable.

I wrote this post for the Institute of Finance Management “Controller’s Report Member Briefing.”  It was published in the May 2015 edition.

Author: Regis Quirin
Visit Regis's Website - Email Regis
Regis Quirin is a financial executive with 23 years of corporate experience, i.e. New York Stock Exchange, JP Morgan Chase, and GMAC ResCap; and 15 years working with small and medium-sized entities, i.e. joint ventures, start-up entities, established businesses. In 2014, Regis published "Redesign to Turnaround Underperforming Small and Medium-Sized Businesses" available via Amazon.